The Florida Cannabis Market Weakens Further

Each week, Florida’s Office of Medical Marijuana Use (OMMU), which is part of the state’s Department of Health, releases data on the state’s medical cannabis program, including an active patient count, a qualified physician count, new dispensary approvals and an update for each operator. That data includes the number of dispensaries and the unit sales each week. This is the eleventh New Cannabis Ventures monthly update on the Florida medical cannabis market. We also published a newsletter about the state in May, suggesting that readers be careful with Florida. This article is based upon the update that was provided on Friday by the state for the week ending 04/03. Readers who are interested in the data going forward can visit the OMMU update page.

Patient Growth Has Slowed

We last updated on the Florida market in April, and the annual growth in patient count had fallen to 3.4% after having been 8.4% in late May a year ago.  The rate of growth had picked up a bit from March, and it ticked up again this past week ending 5/8 to 4.1%. It has come down a lot:

While the number of patients is still increasing, the growth is very low and down substantially from just a few years ago. 914K patients represent 4% of the state’s population. The number of patients was declining ahead of the potential adult-use legalization but has increased slightly recently to a new high:

The year ended with about 895K patients, and the growth since then has been 2.1%. This works out to annualized growth of 6.6%, which is above the 3.5% growth in 2024 but well below the 11.0% growth in 2023.

Some program improvements over the years have helped excite Florida residents about the medical cannabis program, which now has smokable flower and edibles. Then, the post-pandemic population boom aided patient growth. There has been an increase in dispensaries to 719 from 635 a year ago. This is an increase of 13.2%, which is much faster than the medical cannabis patient growth has been at 4.1% since then.

Unit Growth Remains Strong

In the most recent week, sales of medical cannabis product units with THC increased by 9.8% from a year ago. Smokeable flower units expanded 30.6% from the week ending 05/08/24. Unit volume growths remain higher than the revenue gain and the patient gain. There are more stores, and unit volume is growing.

We shared that Florida revenue was up only 1.4% from a year earlier in April 2024 by the estimate of BDSA. This was a record low. Florida’s growth picked up a bit afterwards, but in March, it fell 0.5%, the first annual decline ever. In April, it fell further, declining 2.7% from a year earlier. Patient growth and dispensary growth have led to unit growth, but the total sales have declined.

Florida MSOs Are Weak

We warned readers on May 17, 2024 regarding the MSOs that are big in Florida, as investors seemed overly optimistic. The entire cannabis market has cratered since then, and the entire group of MSOs is sharply lower, especially after the defeat of the adult-use ballot initiative in November. All four leaders in Florida have declined substantially though 05/09/25:

The overall sector, as measured by the NCV Global Cannabis Stock Index, currently at 5.28, has declined by 51.5% since then as of 05/09, and the NCV American Cannabis Operator Index, which currently has 9 members and closed at 6.88, has dropped 66.8%. 3 of the Florida 4 have dropped by more than both of them. MSOS, which is leaded up with Curaleaf and Trulieve at 33.8% of the ETF currently, has dropped 73.4% since 5/16/24. Planet 13, which did an acquisition that made them a large player in Florida, has declined by 57.9%, which is better than the four leaders.

Investors were disappointed that Florida voters did not pass the adult-use legalization ballot initiative, and they likely will not be happy with a mature medical market that is slowing and  becoming more competitive. Investors should remain careful in our view with the big Florida operators. Though they have fallen substantially, they could fall more as the market deteriorates.

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